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专访吉姆-罗杰斯:2013年全球经济将更加糟糕

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2012年07月09日10:41 来源:和讯期货  作者:郝鹏飞

  

吉姆·罗杰斯与和讯网编辑
吉姆·罗杰斯与和讯网编辑

  和讯期货消息 7月7日-8日,第四届中国期货(证券)资产管理大会在杭州召开。 曾被巴菲特盛赞是“对大势把握无人能及的投资大师”的罗杰斯出席了本次会议,并接受了和讯网的专访。罗杰斯在专访中表示表示2013年到2014年全球经济将面临更为严重的问题,可能超乎所有人的想象。明年是美国大选后的第一年,奥巴马已经花了很多的钱在这上面。庞大的债务导致世界范围内的经济问题,有可能发生战争,甚至其他问题。

  在谈到中国房地产问题上,罗杰斯表示中国的房地产泡沫已经破碎,还将不断下行。

  港交所与LME的合作将使得亚洲未来成为商品期货交易的中心,但这个过程很艰难,也要付出很多代价。 

  文字实录:

  和讯:您好,罗杰斯先生,我叫郝鹏飞,来自中国最大的财经门户网站。首先,请您向和讯的网友问好。

  罗杰斯:和讯的网友你们好,我很了解和讯,和讯很有名,全世界每个人都知道你们的网站,现在很高兴见到你郝先生。

  和讯:在2010年的时候,我曾经看到一篇报道,是剑桥大学的一位经济历史学教授说:“世界会在2014年陷入危机”,他所给予的观点是在过去的500年中,每个世纪的开始都发生过有国际影响力的大事件。比如在最近的1914年,第一次世界大战爆发。您是否认为2013-2014年会发生是自2008年以来最严重的全球经济危机?为什么?

  罗杰斯:我完全认为2013-2014将是世界大部分地方都有严重经济问题的时期,我不认识那个教授,但是我很担心2013-2014年。

  和讯:您能说的具体一些么?

  罗杰斯:首先美国是世界历史上最大的债务国家,而且债务上升非常快。在欧洲,现在也有严重的债务问题了,所以世界上两个最大的经济体欧洲和美国将有很大的问题,而且他们都有很严重的问题。明年2013年是美国大选完的第一年,2012年奥巴马花了很多钱,为了赢得这次大选,而到明年这笔钱将停止。所以会没有花销或者更少的花销。庞大的债务导致世界范围内的经济问题,我们有可能发生战争,甚至其他问题。我们有很严重的问题,全世界关注的人都非常担心,我也非常担心。

  和讯:您是否认为随着经济的发展,未来全球的货币会一体化,甚至说未来人类社会资源丰富发达到不需要金融和货币的地步?为什么?

  罗杰斯:也许有一天会发生,但是不在我有生之年,大概也不在你的有生之年。如果我们能有和平,大家在一起交换,每个人都可以拥有资源,这当然很好。但是很不幸,人们很自私。当事情变糟的时候,他们开始担心,通常会结束或者撤回。他们在这样的时刻,不欢迎外国人。

  和讯:您认为什么时候中国的房地产泡沫会破碎?

  罗杰斯:在中国泡沫已经在缩小,中国的政府在让价格停止上升方面做得很好。许多价格已经开始向下了,所以泡沫已经破了,我不知道房价还会往下走多少。如果我是中国,我会紧盯价格走低。中国政府已经开始降低利率,所以我认为政府不再躲藏,但是泡沫已经破裂。价格可能还会往下走,但是至少一段时间内不会再像火箭一样上升。

  和讯:您对港交所和LME之间的合并如何看待?

  罗杰斯:中国将成为世界上最重要的商品交易中心,现在这还不会发生,因为外国人在中国还不能买,但是现在香港已经开始用人民币买,这个对亚洲和全世界都是好事情,因为将来亚洲人数会最多,所以我觉得这很好。香港要支付的代价是非常非常高的,但是他会给亚洲带来更多的商品交易市场,将来亚洲将主导商品交易,亚洲会把商品交易来离西方和美国,但是做到这点,要付出很大的代价,但是这一切都会发生的。

  附录:

  过去的500年中,每个世纪的开始都发生过有国际影响力的大事件。

  1517年,马丁路德指挥向威特博格教堂进攻,开始了教会革命和新教的出现;

  1618年,西欧开始了30年的战争和宗教冲突;

  1715年,汉诺威建立,冲突结束。开始了对大不列颠,爱尔兰,和汉诺威的统治;

  1815年,维也纳国会成立,拿破仑的溃败,开始了近一个世纪的欧洲的相对稳定;

  1914年,第一次世界大战爆发,大灾难的冲突开始,象征20世纪的全世界比较混乱的局面。

  Hexun:hi,Mr Rogers,my name is haopengfei ,from Chinese biggest financial website.First ,please say hi to hexun'audiences.

  Rogers:Hi,Hexun, I know you very well, you are very famous. Everybody in the world knows about your website. Now I have met you, Mr.Hao, nice to meet you,Mr. Hao.

  Hexun:In 2010, I saw a report in which an economic history professor in Cambridge University said:"the world will have crisis in 2014". His opinion based on the fact that in the past 500 years, world-effecting big events happened at the beginning of each century. For instance, the most recently one is world war 1 in 1914. You also said recently that the world economy growth rate will slow down from 2013-2014. Do you think the most serious world economic crisis would happen in 2013-2014 since 2008? Why?

  Rogers:I fully expected 2013-14 will be a time bad economic problems in most of the world,yes.I don't know that professor, but I am very worried about 2013&14.

  Rogers:First of all, America is the largest debter nation in the history of the world.and the debts are going up very rapidly.In Europe,we have serious debt problems now, so you have huge problems in the west, Europe and America, where the two largest economies in the world. and they both have very bad problems.Now the next year, 2013,is the year after the election in America. In 2012, American is spending a lot of money,just try to win so Albama wins the election.Next year, that money stops.So you are gonna have no spending or less spending.huge debts, and you go are going to have serious economic problems world wide and we might have war, who knows what else. We have very serious problems. You should be very worried. Everybody watching it should be very worried.I am very worried.

  Hexun:Do you think the world monetary integration will happen in the future with the development of economy, maybe even the resources in society are so abundant that we don't  need finance or currency at all? Why?

  Rogers:That might happen some day, but not in my life time and probably not in your life time.It would be good if we had peace and everybody could trade together and resources were available to everybody.But unfortunately, people are very selfish, people get worried when things go bad and usually close off and retreat. They don't welcome foreingers at times like that.

  Hexun:When do you think the foam of real estate bubble will explode in China?

  Rogers:The bubble is already going down in China. Your government is done a good job of causing prices to stop rising. Many prices have started going down. So the bubble has popped. I don't know how far down it will go. I will keep things tight if I were China to make sure the prices go lower. your government has already started to lower interest rate so I think they have stopped hiding. But the bubble is popped. Prices may go down some more, but there aren't gonna be skyrocket again, not for a while.

  Hexun:what's  your opinion on the merge of futures exchange

  Rogers:China eventually will be the most important commodity exchange,be the most commodity market in the world.right now that cannot happen because foreingers cannot buy in China. But now hongkong is buying in RMB, that will be very good for Asia, that will be very good for the world because Asia square most of the men in the future. So I find this is very good. the price that Hongkong paid is extremely high, but it will bring more commodity markets to Asia. in the future, Asia will dominate commodity trade, Asia will take commodity trade away from the west and from America, but it is a very high price to pay to do it. But it's going to happen.

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