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Corn: Rising Auction Turnover Rates Slightly Reduce Losses of Breeding Industry

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2014-07-24 10:44:55 来源:大连商品交易所网站 

  This week (July 14 - July 18) the domestic corn market ran smoothly on the whole and the market continued to follow the pace of the auctions of the state reserves. The low turnover rates of the auctions of temporarily reserved corn in Northeast China continued to increase and the auction turnover rates of imported corn still remained at high levels. In North China, the grain prices kept robust, and the business of the breeding industry has improved slightly. The deep processing enterprises continued to suffer from slack final demands.

  From July 16 to 17, the auction sales fair for state temporarily reserved (including inter-provincial cross-warehouses) corn, which had planned to sell 4,521,369 tons of corn, recorded an actual turnover of 2,056,654 tons, with the turnover rate at 45.49% and an average transaction price of RMB 2,240 / ton, and in specific, the 2011 corn attained the planned sales of 1,566 tons with an average transaction price of RMB 2,124 / ton; the 2012 corn with planned sales of 4,519,803 tons achieved an actual turnover of 2,055,088 tons, with a turnover rate of 45.47% and an average transaction price of RMB 2,240 / ton. The transactions of Northeast China corn are still optimistic, but the transactions of inter-provincial cross-warehouses corn in the South are not brisk.

  On July 17, the auction sales fair for state temporarily reserved (including inter-provincial cross-warehouses) corn, which had planned to sell 501,552 tons of No. 2 yellow corn imported from the U.S., achieved an actual turnover of 473,089 tons, with a turnover rate of 94.33%, and specifically, the 2011 imported corn with planned sales of 337,454 tons reported an actual turnover of 322,453 tons with a turnover rate of 95.55% and an average transaction price of RMB 2,214 / ton; the 2012 corn with planned sales of 164,098 tons realized an actual turnover of 150,636 tons, with a turnover rate of 91.8% and an average transaction price of RMB 2,285 / ton. Guangdong, Hainan, Zhejiang and Jiangxi recorded (almost) full transaction and Hunan saw a transaction of nearly half of the total.

  According to the analysis of the transaction results, the transactions of the auctions of the Northeast China temporarily reserved corn showed significant improvement with the enterprises in North China with relatively insufficient grain sources in recent months more active in participation. The turnover rates for the auctions of imported corn were still high with the enterprises presenting strong demand for imported corn because of the cost factor.

  Since there are a small number of inventories, currently the grain-consuming enterprises in North China have found the main grain sources from the auctions of the Northeast China policy-based grain and the corn from the warehouses vacated for the purchases of North China wheat. Although the grain arrivals are acceptable, the prices are still robust.

  Recently, slight rebounds have been seen in pork prices, with the pig farming profits gradually improved and the farmers’ losses decreased. In terms of the trend of the pork prices in the future, I believe that there is high possibility of going up in a steady way, significantly driven by the costs in addition to the seasonal factors. Recently, the farmers have reported fair slaughter rates, which will obviously stabilize the market prices in the short term.

  As corn prices continue to remain high, the wheat to replace the corn has some cost advantages with many farming enterprises adopting it instead. It is expected that in July the amount of the new wheat to replace the corn will continue to increase, and in the main producing areas, the substitution of the wheat for the corn will continue until the new corn is delivered to the market. Currently, under the influence of the auctions of the temporary reserves and the substitution of other grains, the market prices of corn have turned to stable operation in the sales areas.

  Recently the prices of deep-processing products are stable, with starch sugar prices still performing well, and with the policy subsidies the deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China are still capable of making small profits with North China basically at the breakeven level.

  In the general backdrop of enormous inventories of temporary corn reserves, the market pace has clearly followed the auction results, and the grains transferred from the north to the south will play an extremely important role in stabilizing the general market prices. It is expected that next week the spot prices of corn will be stable with small increases and the corn futures prices will fluctuate around RMB2,400 / ton.

  

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