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Corn Futures Run Smoothly

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2014-09-30 14:06:35 来源:大连商品交易所网站 

  “Now the agricultural products such as cotton and soybeans are seeing the policy transformation from purchase and storage aimed at propping up the market to that of targeted prices, the purchase and storage policy for the three major grains including the corn will be liberalized sooner or later, it will be a gradual process, the state is striving for a buffer zone, and it is expected to last for 3 to 5 years,” said Li Shi, a researcher in agricultural futures with a Shanghai-based futures company who have worked in the research in agricultural products for more than a decade, adding that it will change the current pattern of corn price operation.

  From the listing to the end of 2013, the corn futures prices experienced two main periods of prices formed on the basis of free competition in the market and the profound impact of the temporary storage policy with the overall trend divided into five stages.

  The first stage was from September 2004 to September 2005, when the corn futures prices recorded the trend of rising followed by falling. In the seven straight months after the listing, the price gradually went up to reach RMB 1,327 / ton in April 2005, up 15.9% from the early period of listing. With the gradual arrival of the harvest season, the corn futures prices responded in advance to start to decline, recording a decrease of 6.4% until September 2005.

  The second stage lasted from October 2005 to August 2008, when the good prospect for the development of domestic and foreign corn deep processing industry and the extension of the industrial properties of corn expanded the profit margins of corn cultivation. The domestic corn futures prices registered a significant upward trend following the CBOT corn, reaching the high point of RMB 1933.4 / ton in May 2008.

  The third stage was from September 2008 to January 2009, when the international financial crisis triggered systemic risks of the global economy and the corn spot prices sharply fell as a result of the adverse impact of the production limitation and production suspension. The negative factors caused the corn futures price to drop all the way with the decline lasting for more half a year until December 2008 and the lowest price at RMB 1,502.4 / ton.

  The fourth stage was from February 2009 to September 2011, when the domestic corn spot prices continued to rise thanks to the proactive fiscal policy adopted by the state to address the financial crisis and the corn temporary storage policy and the futures prices also showed the upward trend on the whole. The corn futures price index soared from RMB 1,600 / ton at the end of January 2009 to RMB 2,292 / ton in September 2011, an increase of 43.3%.

  The fifth stage was from October 2011 to December 2013, when the state introduced the policies restricting corn deep processing and the purchase and storage of the corn industry nationwide, the domestic farming and deep processing enterprises reported weak demand, DCE’s corn futures prices operated at low levels, and at the same time the corn futures-spot basis was in a reversed case. At the same time, the corn futures price index fluctuated in a narrow range from RMB 2,200 to 2,400 / ton.

(责任编辑:HF047)

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